Tour de France 2015

So the race is underway and we have already had a chance to see all the contenders in action in yesterday's short time trial. Even so, it is still impossible to pick out any one favourite and this looks like the closest and most interesting Tour de France for many years.

Last year's winner Vincenzo Nibali's preparation looks impeccable and with a similar first week to last year he could be in yellow early again. However, the mountains later in the race are going to be tougher than last year and putting Alpe d'Huez on the last Saturday of the race gives the purer climbers a great chance to take the overall.

That, combined with the lack of individual time trial kilometres makes me think that Quintana could well become the first ever Colombian winner of Le Tour. The course is perfect for him, he has a very strong team for the team time trial and to support him in the mountains. If he can get through the first nine days in a good position he will be very hard to beat. 

Froome looks good and after the embarrassment of 2014's early exit he won't make those mistakes again. He still looks a bit fragile psychologically and his climbing is not quite at the same level as Quintana, but I think that he will be the last to drop off in the mountains. The team is also looking very strong and after Porte's disappointing Giro they will be fired up for the Tour.

The course also looks well-suited to Thibaut Pinot but I doubt he can improve on 2014s third place. His team will probably lose a bit of time on stage 9's team time trial and I doubt he will be able to stay with Quintana as long as Froome in the really high mountains.

Contador has said that he wants to win the Giro–Tour double to cement his place as one of the greats, but I doubt he can pull it off at this stage in his career and personally I hope that he doesn't eclipse Marco Pantani's achievement. Although Contador won the Giro, it wasn't a comfortable win and he definitely wasn't the strongest climber. All his competitors will have seen that and he will have a torrid time on the harder climbs. His team don't look as strong in the team time trial and there isn't really anywhere else that he can gain time back.

Cavendish is in great form this year, but there just don't seem to be enough stages for the pure sprinters to give him enough points to take the green jersey. I would guess that he will add another three stages to his overall tally this year and hopefully another one on the Champs-Élysées. Sagan looks very strong and with some of the tricky stages in the first week I think his consistency will bag him another green jersey. But can he win a stage this year?

If all goes to plan for Quintana then he will be right up there for the King of the Mountains and should get enough points to top that classification as well. Majka and Rodriguez will likely have a bad day somewhere that will derail any general classification hopes but both will be fighting hard for the maillot à pois as consolation.

Yellow
1 Nairo Quintana
2 Chris Froome
3 Thibaut Pinot
4 Vincenzo Nibali
5 Alberto Contador

Green
1 Peter Sagan
2 Mark Cavendish
3 Alexander Kristoff

Mountains
1 Nairo Quintana
2 Rafal Majka
3 Joaquim Rodriguez

Tour de France 2014

It is Chris Froome's race to lose. And I think he might. No matter what he says he definitely doesn't look like he is at quite the same level as last year. Certainly not on the evidence up to this point in the year. Also, Sky don't seem quite the team they were. Whatever happens, I think it is going to be a lot closer this year and expect the challenges to be a lot greater.

The big question though is who is most likely to beat him? Contador looks much better than last year and seems to be on great form at the moment. His team is strong and astute, and I think they will put Froome under a lot of pressure.

Nibali has under-performed until recently this year, but looks like he has timed his peak to perfection. He will undoubtably animate the race, but I can't see him actually challenging for the yellow jersey. I think Valverde could give Contador and Froome a good run and the course looks suited to him, but I'm picking Kwiatkowski for third place.

It looks like the green jersey is going to be a cracking competition this year, with almost half the stages possible sprint finishes. Cavendish has flagged his intentions and is clearly psyched up massively for the first stage into Harrogate, his sprint train is back up to full strength and with Renshaw leading him out he should nab a few stage wins. Unfortunately, I think Kittel and Giant-Shimano boys will have the edge and with his consistency Peter Sagan will probably also finish in front of Cav.

It doesn't look like a Tour course for the pure climbers, so I think Pierre Rolland will improve on his third place last year to take the maillot a pois, with Contador and Riblon following.

Yellow
1 Alberto Contador
2 Chris Froome
3 Michal Kwiatkowski
4 Alejandro Valverde
5 Vincenzo Nibali

Green
1 Marcel Kittel
2 Peter Sagan
3 Mark Cavendish

Mountains
1 Pierre Rolland
2 Alberto Contador
3 Christophe Riblon

Tour de France 2013

The race started a couple of hours ago, but still just enough time to get my predictions for this year's Tour de France. It is going to be an interesting race this year: no prologue, Pyrenees in the first week and, of course, no defending champion. Lots of rumours and intrigue flying around about the real reasons, but undoubtably it can only make life easier for the hot favourite, Chris Froome, and Team Sky.

Froome's form is superb and his results this year point to him being the man to beat, so can he take the one hundredth Tour de France as his first ever grand tour win? Well, it is the Tour and plenty can and will happen between here and the Champs Elysees, but basically the answer is yes. Same as last year his closest rival looks to be his Sky teammate Richie Porte and I reckon they will both be on the podium. Joaquim Rodriquez is a bit of a long shot and he has been pretty invisible this year, but the course has plenty that he will be looking forward to and I hope he can give Froome a run in the mountains. Mainly because I can't see anyone else being up to the job.

Evans and Contador will both be strong and consistent, but I can't see either of them getting onto the podium. Evans is going well this year, but the course doesn't really suit him and he just doesn't have the motivation that Froome and Porte have. Contador doesn't look anywhere near his best form, whether that is to do with a lack of chemically enhanced steaks or just the result of all the upheavals over the last few years, and I don't think he will really challenge. He has a strong team and may make the top five, but to be honest he looks like a relic from a past era already.

I am looking forward to the green jersey competition this year and can't believe anyone will get close to Cavendish. The course will make it difficult for Peter Sagan to challenge, although I bet he gets a stage or maybe even two, and I reckon Cavendish's closest challenger will be Andre Greipel.

And the maillot à pois will stay in France, although little Tommy will have to hand it over to Pierre Rolland. I hope Rolland makes top five, but the mountains jersey will be a nice consolation even if he doesn't manage it this year.

Right, the TV coverage must be about to start. See you in three weeks for the post-mortem. Oh, and don't forget to get your fantasy tour teams in here or here (my team is still called Green Wedgie and we have a league going on the SBS one called Green Wedgie vs the World – let me know if you want to join).

Yellow

1 Chris Froome
2 Joaquim Rodriquez
3 Richie Porte
4 Cadel Evans
5 Alberto Contador

Green
1 Mark Cavendish
2 André Greipel
3 Peter Sagan

Mountains
1 Pierre Rolland
2 Thomas Voeckler
3 Joaquim Rodriquez

Fantasy Tour de France

So, now the predictions are done it is time to make sure that your fantasy tour teams are completed and ready to go. Somehow, I seem to have two different competitions on the go:

Team Green Wedgie here and Team Green Weedgy here.

The rules are slightly different and you won't be able to pick the same team on both, but if you want to join in and see if you can beat my measly efforts I have set up a league on both (Green Wedgie v. The World). To join the SBS competition you will need to know that the password is geographyofhope and for the Road.cc one you will need the league ID 76006.

Good luck!

Tour de France 2012

The 198 riders have been presented to the public and media. The thousands of support crews are all in place. The media multitudes are assembled and desperate to write/report about something that actually happened rather than endlessly speculate about what might happen. Yes, it is christmas eve for cycling fans – the day before the Tour starts – and time for some predictions about who will be standing on the podium in Paris in just over three weeks time.

Two in a row for Cadel? I doubted it straight after last year's victory, but looking at his form and the strangely depleted competition combined with a course that seemed to be designed to play to all his strengths I think he will manage it.

Interestingly Cadel's strongest competition looks like coming from a rider with very similar strengths and approach, indeed Bradley Wiggins has commented that Cadel's victory last year inspired him to believe that he really could win. Brad's preparation has been faultless, he is clearly in the form of his life and with wins in Paris–Nice, Tour of Romandie and Dauphiné Libéré it makes sense that he is the bookmaker's favourite.

On top of that Sky are probably the strongest team on the race, with Froome, Rogers, Porte all likely to figure in the top 10 on GC and even their domestiques looking like they could be team leaders in lesser squads.

So what could go wrong?

Well, I think the important difference between Brad and Cadel is that Cadel has realised that to win he has to take some risks, go for the unexpected moves and try to grab seconds whenever he can. Sure Sky will do a great job of shutting most things down and keeping Brad safe, but they won't be able to control everything and their predictability will work against them. Having said all that I would love to see Brad win the overall, especially since it is 50 years since Tom Simpson became the first British rider to wear the yellow jersey. (The CyclingTips article that alerted me to this fact is well worth a read and the pictures are wonderful.)

Scrapping for the final podium place there will be a group of riders all very close. I am hoping that Thomas Voeckler finally makes it on to the podium, but Gesink or Hesjedal could be there along with another three or four riders.

I doubt Mark Cavendish will make it to Paris this year – the lure of a home Olympics and the possibility of picking up Team GBs first gold medal of the games is going to be too hard to resist. It is going to be fascinating watching Cav come up against the hugely impressive Peter Sagan (they seem to have been avoiding each other so far this year) and I suspect Cav is going to have a real battle in the sprints this year. So, in Cav's absence on the Champs Elysees Sagan will take the maillot vert with Matt Goss and André Greipel scrapping for the leftovers.

And my favourite jersey – the maillot à pois – will be Johnny Hoogerland. It is only fair after his horrible crash last year and the relative lack of really big mountains and summit finishes will play right into his hands.

Yellow

1 Cadel Evans
2 Bradley Wiggins
3 Thomas Voekler
4 Robert Gesink
5 Ryder Hesjedal

Green
1 Peter Sagan
2 Matt Goss
3 André Greipel

Mountains
1 Johnny Hoogerland
2 Samuel Sanchez
3 Robert Gesink

Cadel's suitcase of courage*

Well I was wrong about Contador and wrong about the Schlecks, but at least I was pretty close with Cadel. It was probably the most exciting Tour that I can recall – wide-open and tremendously exciting right from the first stage.

Cadel winning was more of a relief than anything else. I did wonder if he would always be one of those riders remembered for the almosts, what-ifs and second placings rather than the big win he deserved. It seems a bit unfair to say that about someone who has won the World Championships and perhaps that day in Mendrisio did mark the turning point in his career. After that he certainly seemed less awkward and more confident about his own talents, happier and willing to take risks.

The win hasn't been as big a deal in Australia as I thought it would be. Obviously it will make a big difference to Australian cycling, but in this sport obsessed society it is unlikely to change much in our sporting landscape. Personally I'm quite happy about that. I don't want the big commercial channels muscling in on the coverage and cocking it all up like they do with the Olympics. Everyone who has watched the Tour over at least a few years knows what a huge achievement it is and how hard it is to win the greatest annual sporting event in the world.

My green jersey predictions weren't too bad. I got the winner and no-one could deny that Thor had a great Tour. I would be surprised if Rojas figured in anyone's predictions for the sprinter's prize but he put up a great fight even though he couldn't compete with Cavendish's all out speed.

My top two maillot à pois predictions failed to fire and I was happy to see Sanchez take the top spot. He is a great climber and worthy winner of this jersey. Finally, hats off, as they say, to 'little' Thomas Voeckler and his superb tenure in the yellow jersey. Unfortunately I think that's the last time the big teams will ever let him get in a breakaway, however, with a bit more investment in the team and bit of good luck he could well be a genuine contender for the yellow jersey in Paris next year. After Cadel, of course.

*Thanks to Paul Sherwin for this bon mot from the Alpe d'Huez stage

Tour de France 2011

Another second place for Cadel? I think so, but whether that will still be the case on August 3 that's another question. Contador is certainly the favourite – no-one could touch him in the Giro and you cannot imagine anyone putting much time into him in the mountains or in the time trials. It will be interesting to see how much a very hard Giro did take out of him and whether he is completely recovered, but his winning margin was so great that even with the superior field at the Tour there doesn't look like anyone who could realistically knock him off the top spot.

Cadel looks much improved this year and I think he can really challenge Contador. His team is much stronger and winning the World Championships seems to have given him a much needed psychological boost. It will be interesting to see if he can attack in the mountains, but with good team and individual time trials it may not matter.

It would be great to see Wiggins and Sky get on the podium. They have a really strong team and I think will surprise a lot of people this year. I am worried that Bradley may have peaked slightly too early and think that he will lose a bit of time in the third week, but hopefully that should still be enough to hold onto third place.

Gesink and Roche are both a bit of a long shot, but I think that they are both riding well and ready to step-up to highest levels. I am so impressed with Roche that he even made the cut in my Tour de France fantasy team.

But there is one big name that we haven't mentioned yet: what about Andy Schleck? His form seems to be off this year and unless he has been doing some serious bluffing I don't think he will be one of the contenders this year. It is possible that he may ride himself into form over the three weeks, but I would bet that his brother Fränk finishes higher than him this year.

This will be the year that everything goes to plan for Mark Cavendish and I am looking forward to seeing him take the green jersey in Paris for the first time.

And my favourite jersey – the maillot à pois – will again be the consolation prize for a plucky unheralded Frenchman. This year I think it will be Jean Gadret's turn, followed closely by last year's winner Anthony Chartreau.

Yellow

1 Alberto Contador
2 Cadel Evans
3 Bradley Wiggins
4 Robert Gesink
5 Nicolas Roche

Green
1 Mark Cavendish
2 Thor Hushovd
3 Tom Boonen

Mountains
1 Jean Gadret
2 Anthony Charteau
3 Samuel Sanchez

Post Tour melancholy

So: now that the sleep deprivation has worn off and the dust has settled on the Champs-Élysées, what to make of Le Tour 2010? Well, for starters my predictions were about as bad as they have ever been. I got the winner right and that was it.

To be fair nobody else I saw managed to pick more than two out of the top five (oh, all right Monsieur Jean-Francois Quenet got three), but even so I would have done better if I had just republished last year's list.

The green jersey list would have been spot on if Petacchi had followed Cipollini's example and headed for the Riviera at the first sign of mountains and you ignore the fact that Robbie was placed below Rojas on a countback. And as for the mountains jersey, well the less said about that the better. I do find it sad that all the real mountain specialists don't seem interested in this classification anymore. They should just rename it the mediocre French journeyman's prize ...

Contador didn't seem to have the same form as last year and I would have loved to seen Schleck really attack him in the mountains. You also have to wonder what would have happened if Andy hadn't lost 42 seconds to Contador in the prologue. How could a serious GC contender lose so much time over 8.9 km? He even lost less time than that to Contador in the 52 km on the penultimate day.

Anyway, I seriously underestimated Schleck's form and if everything goes well for him you have to imagine him winning in the next year or two. And I drastically overestimated how strong Armstrong and Wiggins were – both were a big disappointment. Armstrong looked like he couldn't quite believe that his legs wouldn't keep up with the younger generation and he was unlucky at crucial points, but as Phil or Paul said, when lady luck gives up on you she really gives up. As for Wiggins he just never looked like a serious contender this year. I think the miscalculation on the opening prologue hit him hard psychologically and it will be interesting to see if he can get back in the top ten next year.

Rogers was an even bigger disappointment than Wiggins and Armstrong and, as he said himself near the end of the race, he just isn't cut out for the three week grand tours. Unlike a true GC contender who seems to get stronger as the race goes on you can just see Rogers fading away. Kreuziger did pretty well and I reckon you will see him on the podium before too long.

Tour de France 2010

Winning three Tours de France puts you in special club of cycling greats, joining Greg Lemond, Louison Bobet and Philippe Thys. Doing it at the age of 28 probably gives you another five or six attempts and a shot at all out legend status; looking towards the five Tours of Indurain, Hinault, Merckx and Anquetil and onwards to the dizzy heights of Armstrong's seven wins.

So, the question is can Contador win it again this year and join the club of greats? My answer would have to be ... probably. He is still the strongest rider, his preparation has been good and the course is so suited to him you almost have to wonder if Christian Prudhomme wants anyone else to win.

But. And there are a lot of buts. His team is nowhere near as strong or tactically astute as last year, the tensions and conflict will be gone, but will he have the support when he needs it? I doubt it, but even so I still can't see anyone else managing to get ahead of him. The tough Belgian stages in the first week will also be strange and unfamiliar, with the other favourites doing all they can to make him suffer. Even so, the lack of team time trial and just one individual time trial will play to Contador's strengths, as will the tough Pyrenean stages a few days before the end.

Until the race gets to the Pyrenees I think it is going to be one of the most open and interesting Tours we have seen for many years and there are more genuine challengers this year than I can ever remember, so who else will be joining Contador on the podium?

I think Armstrong will be next. He is looking stronger and more dangerous than last year. Radioshack is also a much stronger team than Astana and you can guarantee that they will work for Armstrong like no other team in the race. Also it is his last chance and if he has enough time on Contador before the Pyrenees, he could just hang on to make it eight. Unfortunately, unless Contador and Astana make mistakes I just can't see where he is going to gain enough time.

And moving up one place on 2009, I think Bradley Wiggins will be finishing on the podium for the first time. He looks ready, thinks he is in better form than last year and Team Sky are hungry to show that they can compete at the highest level with the best in the world.

After that there probably another ten riders that could round out the top five. The Schleck brothers still look strong, but I think Andy is not quite on his best form and Franck just isn't strong enough in the mountains. Cadel was very strong at the Giro, the lack of team time trial will be an even greater relief for him than Contador, but I think he will struggle to crack the top five. Michael Rogers on the other hand looks like he is in the form of his life and, although Columbia will be working hard to put Cavendish into the green jersey, I still think he will have enough support to strongly challenge for yellow. And in fifth, Roman Kreuziger, will show how much potential he has as well as wresting the white jersey from the shoulders of Andy Schleck.

Yellow

1 Alberto Contador
2 Lance Armstrong
3 Bradley Wiggins
4 Michael Rogers
5 Roman Kreuziger

Green
1 Mark Cavendish
2 Thor Hushovd
3 Robbie McEwen

Mountains
1 Carlos Sastre
2 Luis León Sánchez
3 Cadel Evans

Tour round-up

So, farewell Tommo, Paul and Phil, late nights, Matt and Ned and Chris in the ITV podcast on the train to work and managing my own tour team.

All that remains is to check the predictions and see how we did this year. Pretty good I have to say. Certainly much better than last year ...

Top two on GC correct and only one place out for Lance. Bradley Wiggins surprised me to equal Robert Millar's fourth place from 25 years ago, but then again I don't know of anyone who predicted that! Evans and Sastre were big disappointments and Sastre couldn't even blame his team. I think that both are probably already past the peak of their careers, although it would be good if Cadel could prove me wrong.

Not bad on the green jersey either – if the commisars had stayed out of it and I had been a bit more optimistic about Thor. Boonen was completely invisible and if you had asked me I would have been hard pushed to even say when he abandoned. Quick Step would have been better with Alan Davies after all!

The mountain jersey wasn't quite so good – Sastre was 43rd and didn't do anything whatsoever in the mountains. Still, I was right about Contador in 3rd and Andy Schleck was close with his 4th place.

And finally, my fantasy team ended up 1556th with 1389 points. I could possibly have done even better if I had read the rules. Just wait for next year ...

Tour de France 09

In theory Alberto Contador has to be the favourite for this year's race – climber's course, strongest team, blistering form and almost perfect preparation.

Will it all go according to plan though? I have my doubts. The team is riven into two clear camps by the presence of Armstrong, Bruyneel seems unsure of what he is doing and where his loyalties lie, the financial problems, the intriguing political maneuvering and the reappearance of our old friend Vinokourov all point to a team more likely to implode in shower of overheated egos than put riders on to the podium. One thing's for sure though: it should be fun to watch.

Could all this play into the hands of our local hero Cadel? I would like to hope so, but I suspect there is too much climbing, not enough time trialling and that his team won't be strong enough to either support him in the mountains or not lose time in the team time trial.

Astana's problems are more likely to benefit the other strong teams like Saxo Bank, Columbia and possibly even Garmin, playing into the hands of a canny operator like Bjarne Riis.

Sastre doesn't have the team to back him up this year and I suspect the best we will see from him are a couple of solo mountain wins in the Alps when he is already out of overall contention. He'll probably pick up the maillot à pois rouges for his efforts though.

And what about Menchov? He could well end up on the podium, but I have a feeling that he won't have totally recovered from his Giro efforts and will end up losing time somewhere on one of the big mountain stages.

Mark Cavendish should make it to Paris this year and I would be surprised if he doesn't have the green jersey on when he takes his first win on the Champs-Élysées. The last minute reinstatement of Tom Boonen should make things more interesting, but I can't see anyone challenging Cavendish in a straight-up sprint. His team is too well organised and he is just too fast. The margins won't be as big this year, but they will still be more than enough.

So here they are, my predictions for all three jerseys. Feel free to add your own in the comments or just tell me where I've got it wrong. And if anyone fancies a shot at picking their own team try the SBS Fantasy Tour and see if you can beat CDMC Racing ...

Yellow

1 Alberto Contador
2 Andy Schleck
3 Cadel Evans
4 Lance Armstrong
5 Carlos Sastre

Green
1 Mark Cavendish
2 Tom Boonen
3 Thor Hushovd


Mountains
1 Carlos Sastre
2 Andy Schleck
3 Alberto Contador

Bad Blood

As you can probably guess, Bad Blood is mostly about drugs. Jeremy Whittle was one of the launch editors of procycling in 1999 and he has written about professional cycling for over 10 years, so it is safe to say that he knows what he is talking about on this topic.

He recounts his journey from enthusiastic, but innocent fan who becomes seduced by the Tour and cycling – spending hours watching highlights of the 1986 Tour late at night and cycling his bike through London streets in the early hours – to a jaded, exasperated insider who has fallen out of love with the sport.

It is a brilliant and fascinating read. Whittle has obviously invested far more of his life and thought longer and harder about the problems plaguing professional cycling than I have, but the arc of his relationship with the sport will be familiar to anybody who has followed cycling over the last ten to twenty years.

It isn't a particularly long book and he doesn't go into depth presenting or reporting the evidence of widespread drug use in the peleton. Most of the facts will be well-known to readers but his writing has great emotion and the powerfulness of the writing comes from the way these news stories collide and impact with this one man's life.

The other insider accounts (Paul Kimmage's Rough Ride and Willy Voet's Breaking the Chain spring to mind) I have read tend to be self-serving and resentful and since they are written by ex-riders and support staff tend to be more about settling scores and justifying the protagonists behaviour.

Because Jeremy is one step removed from the actual racing he is more clear-sighted about what is going on and the effects it has on the sport that he loves. Early on in the book he sets out what he hopes to achieve:

... I believe that sport has as much of a role to play in the fabric of our lives as politics or art, and what interests me is not a litany of naming and shaming but the effect of a tacit acceptance of institutionalised doping, both on professional athletes and on their fans.

This he does, but again it is the personal effect on Jeremy himself as a fan and a member of the cycling fraternity that most powerfully illuminates the damage that doping has inflicted on cycling.

There was not any single moment when I realised that a sport – an obsession – that had helped me to come to terms with my own dark places and to rebuild my life had in fact become a prison of its own. Instead, my faith in those working within cycling died slowly – the 'death of a thousand cuts' – as scandal followed scandal, until there was no residue of faith left.
...
Looking back it took a very long time for me to become faithless ... Yet eventually the sport's inability to achieve change angered me. At the same time, I realised how polluted my own life had been by the melancholy and defeatism of doping. Acknowledging the extent of that contamination was a liberation of sorts.

The essence of doping is cheating and the essence of cheating is defeatism. Doping says, 'this can't be done any other way; this can't be achieved through hard work or talent, through intelligence, determination and honesty'. All that's left is to lie and cheat and make others complicit to that cheating.

And living and working in an environment where those values are the currency of everyday relationships, kills you a little. It colours your belief and taints your faith in human nature.

I will always love the Tour and, because of those magical summer days when as a teenager I followed the exploits of Robert Millar, Greg Lemond and Laurent Fignon on Channel 4 in the late 1980s, those three weeks in July will always be special. However, over the last few years I have begun to care less and less who actually wins. I am sure I will always have an opinion about who is going to win and will always follow the sport to a certain degree, but as with Jeremy the dreams and enchantment that I once had are long gone and sadly I think that is true for many other fans.

In defence of Cadel

Boring ... wheel-sucker ... never attacks ... most unworthy winner ever (if he wins). There are a lot of people who don't rate Cadel.

I still think he is the best rider in the race and will be pulling on the the yellow jersey later tonight.

The way he rides to his strengths reminds me a lot of Miquel Indurain. I doubt Cadel will manage five wins, but if you think back to the flack that Big Mig used to get for blowing everyone away in the time trial and then sitting on wheels in the mountains it is quite uncanny.

In my opinion a lot of the negative publicity is purely down to the number of journalists covering the race and looking for any small piece of controversy. Sure, Serge the bodyguard is a bit over the top and his tantrum after the crash didn't show him in the best light. There is also the annoying whiny voice ...

But, you have to admit that has shown himself to be a pretty interesting and complex character. On the bike he looks confident and in control even when losing time. Off the bike he seems less sure of himself and more nervous. And, even though it often seems to be about so much more, the beauty of The Tour is that the best bike-rider is always the man in yellow on the Champs Élysées.

The Alp

Last night I made the tactical decision to go to bed once the race leaders crested the Cime de la Bonnette-Restefond, gaining an extra 20 minutes sleep and assuming that nothing much would happen on the run-in to Jausiers:

• Menchov loses 35 seconds on the descent (he must be glad that today is an uphill finish)
• John-Lee Augustyn goes from likely stage winner to lucky to be finishing in one mis-judged corner
• And Cadel Evans headbutts a cameraman

Hmmm. I feel almost as silly as Felix Lowe must be feeling today ...

I won't be making the same mistake tonight. By the time the stage finishes atop Alpe d'Huez it should be much clearer who will be in yellow on Sunday night. If Cadel can stick with Frank and Bernhard then he will likely be the first Australian to win, if he loses less than a minute or two he will probably still be OK, more than that and it will be one of the others in the top 5.

One of my favourite items of clothing when I was younger was a t-shirt from Bourg d'Oisans at the foot of Alpe d'Huez. I can't remember what the image was, but it was a white t-shirt with bright green text and drawing.

23 days in July

My favourite time of the year is just around the corner, the greatest annual sporting event in the world is about to begin and I have been in training for sleep-deprivation, swotting up on facts and form and examining stage maps and profiles ...

And the big question this year is Cadel can win it? I really do think he can. The course suits him, the preparation has been good, but not too perfect and the changes to the rules will help him. I also think he has the experience and confidence to ride his own race and not be distracted worrying about the competition.

Sastre and Valverde are going to be the main rivals. I still don't think that Cunego has the legs for the high mountains, but hope to see Andy Schleck and Ricco do well in that arena. Menchov will also be a threat, but I just think he will have one bad day that will put him out of reach of the podium.

The Silence-Lotto team has obviously been built around Cadel's potential this year, leaving Robbie out in the cold, but ironically I think this will help him take the jersey for the fourth time. Cavendish is gaining in confidence every day and will be close by, with the ever reliable Hushovd just behind.

So here's the full list of predictions. Two jerseys and the overall for Australia? Yes, I think it just might happen.

Yellow

1 Cadel Evans
2 Carlos Sastre
3 Alejandro Valverde
4 Andy Schleck
5 Ricardo Ricco

Green
1 Robbie McEwen
2 Mark Cavendish
3 Thor Hushovd


Mountains
1 Andy Schleck
2 Ricardo Ricco
3 Cadel Evans


Oh, and Davy Miller will get a stage win somewhere ...