Tour de France 2014

It is Chris Froome's race to lose. And I think he might. No matter what he says he definitely doesn't look like he is at quite the same level as last year. Certainly not on the evidence up to this point in the year. Also, Sky don't seem quite the team they were. Whatever happens, I think it is going to be a lot closer this year and expect the challenges to be a lot greater.

The big question though is who is most likely to beat him? Contador looks much better than last year and seems to be on great form at the moment. His team is strong and astute, and I think they will put Froome under a lot of pressure.

Nibali has under-performed until recently this year, but looks like he has timed his peak to perfection. He will undoubtably animate the race, but I can't see him actually challenging for the yellow jersey. I think Valverde could give Contador and Froome a good run and the course looks suited to him, but I'm picking Kwiatkowski for third place.

It looks like the green jersey is going to be a cracking competition this year, with almost half the stages possible sprint finishes. Cavendish has flagged his intentions and is clearly psyched up massively for the first stage into Harrogate, his sprint train is back up to full strength and with Renshaw leading him out he should nab a few stage wins. Unfortunately, I think Kittel and Giant-Shimano boys will have the edge and with his consistency Peter Sagan will probably also finish in front of Cav.

It doesn't look like a Tour course for the pure climbers, so I think Pierre Rolland will improve on his third place last year to take the maillot a pois, with Contador and Riblon following.

Yellow
1 Alberto Contador
2 Chris Froome
3 Michal Kwiatkowski
4 Alejandro Valverde
5 Vincenzo Nibali

Green
1 Marcel Kittel
2 Peter Sagan
3 Mark Cavendish

Mountains
1 Pierre Rolland
2 Alberto Contador
3 Christophe Riblon